The New York Times reports today that they feel it is highly likely that Rex Tillerson will be ousted as Secretary of State by the Trump administration.
This should come as no surprise to anyone watching the daily happenings at the White House, after NBC News reported that the fury between Trump and Tillerson was at a boiling point that may very well have included the Secretary of State calling the President a “moron”.
These same reporters also seem to think that the dominoes could soon be falling in a way that will directly impact the state of Arkansas. First of all, the Times report spells out a scenario in which CIA Director Mike Pompeo, a former three-term Congressman from the Wichita area would immediately be appointed as Secretary of State.
(Ironically with InsideFortSmith.Com having sister publications in that area, we were on hand at an El Dorado, Kansas Rotary Club meeting just over a year ago in which Pompeo didn’t exactly give a ringing endorsement, but it would appear the lure of yet another Presidential appointment to an extremely powerful position has likely changed his mind.)
But it gets better.
The Times report confirms the months old chatter we’ve heard among other political insiders in our state that if the Pompeo appointment happens, that United States Senator Tom Cotton is headed to the CIA as the next director. With his military background and love of involvement in foreign affairs, this position would likely fit him like a glove.
After the instant elevation to the position of ultimate Washington insider, we’d probably never see him again in this state, either.
So what happens from there? It starts with Governor Asa Hutchinson, who is then left to appoint a replacement for Cotton, who would serve until at least 2021.
This isn’t an unprecedented thing in our state, as many people remember the 1977 death of United States Senator John McClellan. Then-Governor David Pryor appointed Game and Fish Commissioner Kaneaster Hodges to fulfill the rest of the term, then ran for it himself a year later. Pryor was replaced in the Governor’s Mansion by a young Attorney General by the name of Bill Clinton.
The list of people who Hutchinson could appoint is long, but here are a few of our thoughts, which have no basis other than we have watched Arkansas politics for a long time and these five people come to mind:
Congressman Steve Womack - The Russellville native would be a strong candidate for the office on paper, who like his father before him, rose to the rank of Lt. Colonel in the Arkansas National Guard. With the support of the power brokers in Northwest Arkansas behind him, he has become somewhat of a national player, and most know that he commands a room pretty easily. Remember the Republican National Convention?
Lt. Governor Tim Griffin - Griffin came home from Washington where he was already on track to hold an office like this. When he ran for Lieutenant Governor, he cited a desire to be with his family so we’re not completely sure he wants to go back. But given that the United States Senate is the most exclusive country club in the land, the allure of joining it might be enough to change one’s mind. He has the credentials and has the experience in Washington.
Former Senator Michael Lamoureux - The Russellville native left the state Senate to become Governor Hutchinson’s Chief of Staff in 2016, but didn’t stay long. He now serves as legal counsel for a lobbying firm headed by Morrilton based political insider Bruce Hawkins. We don’t know too many of the details of his exit, but if Governor Hutchinson is still friendly with him and opts not to mess with Arkansas’ Congressional delegation, he might be someone with the experience to serve our state well.
Congressman French Hill - In our opinion, if you are a sitting Governor with Republican interests, it might be risky to mess with Arkansas’ Second District where Democrats have been known to win from time to time. However, French Hill has been successful in just about everything he has done. He hasn’t had a lot of controversy during his time in Washington, and he has built in relationships in Washington already that are solid.
State Senator Jonathan Dismang - The Searcy Republican has been the President Pro Tempore for a while now. At age 38, he has probably been one of the most powerful people in the state under the age of 40 for several years now, having served in that Senate seat since 2010. He is another member of the legislature that hasn’t had a whole lot of controversy, seems to have handled his position responsibly, and whose time is almost up at the state level.
Just like in Razorback coaching searches, these are just guesses, and we don’t even claim to know what anyone is thinking. But it is an interesting time in Arkansas politics.
We shall see what happens.